The beast awakens
Folly Beach, SC- Like a walk in loose sand, the 2009 hurricane season has moved at snail’s pace in accordance with pre-season predictions which suggested a below-average number of named storms this year. On August 4, experts re-evaluated their forecast and suggested even lower numbers. But like a schoolyard kid being subjected to a double-dog dare, the Atlantic seems to have replaced its quiet demeanor thus far with a feverish attitude to prive what it can do in the face of attacks on its mettle. Only seven days after the new forecast suggested a sleepy season, the warm waters of the Atlantic and Mexican Gulf spawned Ana, Bill, and Claudette within days of each other.
Forecasters Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences have spent many years compiling data and developing models in order to create more accurate forecasts from a farther chronological distance. In fact, their first report on the 2009 season was released in November of 2008. However, they regularly release new reports in order to utilize newly compiled data for more accurate forecasts.
“We continue to call for a below-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2009,” the latest report states from Phillip Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences. In December, 14 named storms and seven hurricanes were predicted. In June, those numbers had been reduced to 12 and five respectively. The latest prediction is for 10 named storms and four hurricanes. According to the report, the decreased numbers are due to an El Niño event. El Niño describes a specific ocean/atmosphere relationship that is largely defined by Pacific Ocean temperatures. There are all kinds of different effects on the environment, however, for the East Coast it means that there should be a regular wind shear that makes it difficult for hurricanes to form and sustain themselves in the Atlantic.
Any relief from a “below-average” season must be juxtaposed with the reality that it only takes one hurricane to change a life and a city forever. The trio of storms that have appeared in mid-August are tattoos. They are reminders that only the ignorant scoff at hurricane season. “Tropical Depression Two” was observed off the African coast on August 11 and later became Tropical Storm Ana, the first named storm of the season. Right on her heels was Bill which became a Category 1 hurricane on August 17. Bill is expected to become a major storm (Category 3 or greater) giving Bermuda everything he has. Tropical Storm Claudette formed in the Gulf of Mexico on August 16 and is bearing down on the Florida panhandle as this sentence was being typed.
All at once, Mother Nature reminds us of her seasonal arsenal: We see a degrading storm in the Caribbean, a fresh one in the Gulf and a monster building steam in the Atlantic. Like a strange dream where you are home, but in a strange house at the same time, it makes sense somewhere in your soul and leaves you feeling unsettled. Gulf coast residents must be having fresh nightmares of the 2008 season. Bill is expected to spare us; to wink with a sideways glance, a surfer’s dream, before turning away and beating up on Bermuda. If so, we can only watch helplessly from a distance. While we may see a statistically slow hurricane season, we should also heed nature’s trifecta warning: “You are small. Remember that.”
To see Klotzbach and Gray’s forecast work in more detail visit: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/
To keep track of what’s going on in the Atlantic visit the National Hurricane Center at: www.nhc.noaa.gov
